On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister will make a major speech regarding Palestinians (he will not say Palestine), Arab states, the peace process, and US demands for a complete halt in settlement construction. Based on the early report (of a speech that supposedly has not yet been written), Netanyahu plans to return to the traditional position Israel has held for the last two decades, and portrays such a return as a huge concession requiring equal concessions from all other parties and observers.
According to Haaretz:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will announce in his foreign policy speech scheduled for Sunday the adoption of the road map and the "two-state solution" for settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, according to sources close to the prime minister. The sources said the speech will "revolve around the road map."
Netanyahu will present a few conditions for the implementation of the road map, above all a Palestinian recognition of Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. He will also demand that the future Palestinian state be demilitarized.
Netanyahu will propose a regional process in which Arab states will initiate the normalization of ties with Israel, in parallel to the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Is this statement good or bad? Clearly, it is not inherently bad in that it doesn’t make the situation worse. Coming from Netanyahu, who still have never used the words "two-state solution" since he became Prime Minister, it will be made to sound like he is offering concessions. But what will the statement really offer?
The traditional Israeli governmental position, since at least the Oslo days, has been Israeli support for a theoretical Palestinian state, at some undefined point in the future with some undefined borders under some undefined limitations. Netanyahu will likely return to this position. He will further return to the process of endless negotiations with Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas. These negotiations have been going on for nearly 20 years now, and there is no sign of any intention of making them mean anything in the near future. This is the traditional Israeli position: continuous negotiations with no results and no end.
Netanyahu will also pledge allegiance to Bush’s "road map." This road map is, of course, one of those "previous agreements" that parties must abide by (Hamas’s failure to adequate state that it will abide by "previous agreements" is part of the grounds for two years of Israeli siege and warfare against Gaza). However, Netanyahu will only reaccept the road map with "conditions," as yet unspecified. This position, again, simply returns the Israeli government to its standard position for decades.
As part of the road map, Israel was required to halt construction in the settlements. Netanyahu will likely pledge to "halt" such construction, but only with a number of caveats: only in some places, only in illegal "outposts," not including "natural growth" or land used by the military, etc. In doing so, he will follow the standard Israeli position that the government must distance itself from the settlements rhetorically on the international stage, but it will continue allowing them to increase and promoting their expansion.
Thus, Netanyahu will use Sunday to simply return to the traditional position the Israeli government has taken for 20 years. However, he will portray this act as a massive concession. He will demand equivalent concessions from each and every party involved in the discussion. As the Haaretz article prefigures:
- From the Palestinians, he will demand that they recognize Israel, state that Israel is the Jewish homeland, say that those pants make Netanyahu’s butt look good, and leap through any other rhetorical hoops Netanyahu can think of on the drive over to the speech. He would ask for more than rhetoric, but since all of the PA’s resources are currently devoted to fighting Hamas, it is not clear what more the PA can give.
- From the Arab states, Netanyahu will demand that they move forward on recognition of Israel before any peace treaty with the Palestinians is signed, or even completely negotiated.
- From the Americans, he will demand that they pretend a few token limitations on the settlements constitute a "halt to construction," and reduce their denunciations of this continuing colonization.
- From the rest of the world, he will repeat his pro forma demand for more hostility against Iran.
All of these concessions will be demanded in return for Netanyahu doing absolutely nothing except reiterating the position that the Israeli government has held for 20 years.
Of course, it is not yet clear if Netanyahu will go all the way back to the starting Israeli position:
The prime minister will propose the immediate renewal of negotiations with the Palestinian Authority on the basis of a formula that will allow for self-government as long as the Palestinians do not endanger Israel.
That line could mean a two-state solution, or a more-limited version of autonomy. We’ll have to wait and be surprised.
Meanwhile, of course, the run-up to the speech involves all required theater to keep the audience guessing and to show just how massive a concession Netanyahu will be making:
President Shimon Peres is to meet with Netanyahu today to persuade him to adopt more moderate views regarding the Palestinians. Netanyahu is also to submit a draft of the speech to Defense Minister Ehud Barak tomorrow.
So we are treated to the spectacle of the aged, dignified President, and the "leftist" Defense Minister pleading with Netanyahu to give in. On Saturday, it will be announced that these two luminaries have succeeded, through great personal humiliation, in wring massive compromises from Netanyahu. Netanyahu will announce that construction in "outposts" (already illegal under Israeli law), will be banned by law. Such an announcement will have zero effect on the ground, but will be portrayed as yet another concession.
Thus, on Sunday the world will see a small rhetorical change out of Bibi Netanyahu, as he speaks supposedly impossible words and accepts negotiations with the PA. There will not be the slightest movement in the position of the Israeli government. Nonetheless, in return for restating the Israeli position, Netanyahu will call for massive concessions by Palestinians, Arab States, and the US.
I hope the parties involved will stand behind President Obama’s demand for a complete and real halt to building in the settlements, and not be swayed by such an obvious piece of theater. Obama’s history so far suggests that he will not be easily mislead by phony changes, but on Monday morning there will be numerous commentators cheering on the incredible steps Israel has taken for peace and shouting that the US must not demand anything further. Obama must resist this pressure, or the will be no hope of a two-state solution under his administration.